Commodity Weekly Report for 11/Mar./2013 – 16/Mar./2013
Gold falls as strong U.S. jobs
figures hint at recovery
Gold fell 1 percent in earlier
trade, stocks markets rose and the dollar leapt after data showed U.S.
employers added 236,000 jobs last month, well above an expected 160,000,
pushing the unemployment rate to a four year-low. If the unemployment rate does
come down and register a figure below the current estimate of 7.9%, there are
apprehensions that the Fed may take it as a signal to phase out the QE
measures. This can sap the liquidity and thereby snap the potential bull runs
in commodities.
Upbeat U.S. data has fuelled appetite for riskier assets such as stocks at
gold’s expense and raised speculation the Fed may consider reining in its
ultra-loose monetary policy. That has supported gold’s recent rally, by
pressuring long-term interest rates and stoking inflation concerns. “The fact
that the strongest economic data in a while failed to trigger a break below the
recent low (has given) the market a bit of confidence, so we are seeing a
classic Friday short covering exercise,”. But the pace of gains is still below
the roughly 250,000 jobs per month that economists say is needed to
significantly reduce unemployment, as the Federal Reserve hopes to achieve with
its very accommodative policy.
China Crude Oil import down 9% y/y
to 5.43 mb/d in Feb 2013.
Crude oil imports of china pulled
back 17% m/m, to 5.43 mb/d (down 9% y/y), and imports in the first two months
of the year averaged 5.7 mb/d, down 1% from last year’s highs, when China was
filling the SPR, according to Barclays report. Refiners may also be taking a
breather from months of strong imports ahead of the spring maintenance season.
Product imports of the country were flat at 890 kb/d, while exports also held
at 570 kb/d, keeping net imports steady at 280 kb/d. Chinese refiners likely
continued to export gasoline and diesel as the fuel market remained well
supplied during the holiday season, but product stocks are now back at seasonal
levels.
Meanwhile, China’s total exports rose by 21.8 percent year-on-year in February
exceeding economists’ forecasts and imports of the country declined more than
expected during the month, falling 15.2 percent, according to General
Administration of Customs data. It had been expected that the exports will rise
by 8.1 percent and imports will fall by 8.5 percent.
Slow demand from China; MCX Copper
bearish.
Slow demand from Chinese manufacturing
industries has impacted Base metal prices. China’s latest property market curbs
have stirred heated discussion, with experts close to policymakers saying China
will try to control the side effects of the measures.
Copper prices at LME markets
declined to $7699 levels yesterday. U.S jobless claims release is likely to be
announced in later session may impact the metal prices. Weakness in Dollar
Index may reflect current prices.
Decline in LME markets and weak
dollar index has impacted prices. U.S and Euro zone manufacturing Purchasing
Manufacturing Index (PMI) is likely to be announced in later session may
pressurize the base metal pack.
Outlook on U.S unemployment rate and
LME markets may reflect Copper prices. Selling pressure and moderate volumes
may impact the markets in later session
MCX GOLD Technical Trend
MCX GOLD last week showed downward movement and found strong support
of 29100 but unable to sustain around this level. Now if it able to break this
support then next support is seen around 28750. On higher side 29780 will act
as resistance for it, only above this strength may be seen towards the next
resistance of 30150.
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to
sell below 29100 for the targets of 28750-28500 with stop loss of 29575.
MCX SILVER Technical Trend
MCX SILVER last week showed choppy movement and found previous support
of 53800. Now on lower side if it is able to break 53800 then only selling
pressure drag it towards the next support level of 52700. On higher side 55550
will act as strong resistance for it above this it may test next resistance
i.e. 56700.
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at
this point of time is to buy above 56100 for the target of 57500, with stop
loss of 54500.
MCX CRUDEOIL Technical Trend
Crude oil last week followed
sideways movements and found support of 50% retracement i.e. around 4970 and
move in the range of 5010-4925 while closing above 4970 indicates buying
streangth seen above 5010. On lower side 4925 will act as strong support for
it.
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is
to buy above 5050 for the target of 5130-5170 with stop loss of 4925.
MCX COPPER Technical Trend
MCX Copper still moved in
consolidation range near its strong support i.e. 423.95. Now if it breaks
this strong support with high volume then it may drag towards next support
level i.e. 418. On higher side if it sustain above 428.50 then it may face next
resistance around 434.
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER will
be sell below 423.95, with stop loss of 434 for the targets of 418-414.
